Kyler Murray: The Undrafted Upside.

There’s only so much analysis on popular 2026 QBs such as Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams. We all know about them, everyone’s writing about these players and there’s hardly anything new to share. Meanwhile, almost nobody is looking at essentially a free dart throw, one with potential to have us looking back after the season asking, "How did we not consider this outcome?"

A not so long time ago, Kyler Murray was drafted, on average, as the QB5 across 3 straight years from 2020-2022. Now in 2026, Kyler hovers around the QB17 - 20 depending on your platform. On the surface, the fade makes sense. Beyond his on field performance decline over recent seasons, Kyler has been surrounded with negative off field concerns about his dedication to film study and lack of ambition, the COD memes exist for a reason. Why would we want a QB who was essentially “benched” for Jacoby Brissett last year and now just changed teams that involves him learning a new system?

Please don’t take this as “Kyler is going to be an elite QB again and win you your league”. This is about identifying a potential late draft pick the community might be overlooking after the disaster of a season he had. Will he be a Top 5 fantasy QB again? The odds say no, but it may be in the range of outcomes, albeit however slim they are. I want to emphasize Kyler’s player profile plus his opportunity to sneak into the back end of the QB1 range as a currently undrafted player.

Fields Was Drafted As A QB1 In 2025

Only last season, Justin Fields was drafted as a borderline QB1, almost entirely off his rushing profile. So why is Kyler, a more proven passer with comparable rushing upside now going roughly 7-9 QB spots later? Comparable does not mean equal and not all QBs with rushing upside are the same, but the gap shouldn't be this wide.

Maybe it's name fatigue, maybe it's the essential benching to Jacoby Brissett scaring people off, but if the fantasy community believed in Fields, we should at least be looking at Kyler. Not to say go draft him as QB10, but give him real consideration for teams that punt on QB or like to take late fliers.

QB Rushing Is King

It's no secret league winning QB performances correlate with rushing production. The hybrid archetype became a staple in QB analysis showing fantasy managers more predictable league winning QB seasons happen with exceptional rushing upside. Yes, I know Matthew Stafford was one of fantasy’s top QBs in 2025, but no one drafted him as a QB1. And why was he essentially undrafted while being available on most waiver wires for weeks to start the season? Because it was near impossible to predict that type of performance from Stafford after we witnessed back to back season low passing stats in 2023 and 2024.

Stafford is by far and away one the best real life QBs, unfortunately that isn't what always correlates to fantasy success.

A QB with rushing upside can make up fantasy points on the ground even when he struggles as a passer. That's a floor and a safety net, because rushing points are simply cheaper than passing points. Under normal scoring formats, 1 yard = 0.1 points or 1 point per 10 rushing yards and 6 points per rushing TD. Passing plays are scored as .04 points per passing yard or 1 point per 25 yards and 4 points for each passing TD 

Let’s look at the point comparison between a primary pocket passing QB box score vs a mobile QB.

These are arbitrary numbers for the sake of example and selected to showcase how powerful rushing fantasy points are. A QB throwing for 50 yards and no scores is a disaster of a passing stat line. But yet it emphasizes how a rushing QB can nearly match a traditional pocket passer's output on a fraction of the passing production. 

The market already understands this given the player profile of early drafted QBs. Over the last 5+ years, it's not simply the best pure passers going early, rather it's the best hybrid players. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels all share a common, consistent rushing floor. Some of them might score more rushing TDs while others accumulate significantly more rushing yards, but the general end result is the same. Rushing provides the capability to better predict a true league winning season when a QB can both rush and pass. Those are the games that win you weeks and championships. It's why these QBs go in the top half of drafts, and why you get nervous seeing one on your opponent's roster. You know any moment, they can pop off for 30+ points and you’re hoping it’s not the week against you.

Kyler's Rushing Profile

Rushing is even more vital for QBs with shaky passing resumes (Fields in 2025, even Malik Willis in 2026). Passing is volatile whereas rushing is consistent and predictable. For an undrafted QB, we lean on the rushing profile to provide stability when the passing game is inconsistent.

His 2025 numbers from the image above are:

• Rush TD/Game - .20
• Rush Yards/Game - 34.6
• Rushing Fantasy Points/Game - 4.7
• Rush Attempts/Game - 5.8
• Yards Per Carry - 5.97
• Carries Inside 5/Game - .20

And this image shows his career averages in the same stats:

• Rush TD/Game - .30
• Rush Yards/Game - 33.4
• Rushing Fantasy Points/Game - 5.2
• Rush Attempts/Game - 5.7
• Yards Per Carry - 5.98
• Carries Inside 5/Game - .33

Kyler had a wasted 2025 season, arguably one of his worst seasons, but in that limited sample, we see just how stable those rushing numbers remained. Over his 7 year career, his rushing averages remained consistent. So why would they suddenly change now?

For additional perspective, let's compare Kyler's career rushing averages against 2 other QBs with a Top 12 QB ADP.

The rushing player profile for mystery QB 1 and QB 2. The names are intentionally blurred out for now.

Mystery QB 1:

• Rush TD/Game - .09
• Rush Yards/Game - 25.7
• Rushing Fantasy Points/Game - 3.1
• Rush Attempts/Game - 4.7
• Yards Per Carry - 5.51
• Carries Inside 5/Game - .09

And compared to mystery QB 2.

• Rush TD/Game - .2
• Rush Yards/Game - 29.5
• Rushing Fantasy Points/Game - 4.1
• Rush Attempts/Game - 5.2
• Yards Per Carry - 6.09
• Carries Inside 5/Game - .13

For a reminder, Kyler averages 5.2 rushing fantasy points a game. We want QBs with good rushing profiles and both mystery QBs give that rushing base line we want. The first mystery QB is Caleb Williams, who on average is drafted as the QB8. Mystery QB 2 is Drake Maye, the QB4 off the board and 2025's example of a late round QB with a similar rushing profile. It isn't a case of Kyler over these players, but more about, we are already identifying QBs with good rushing profiles, except for some reason Kyler Murray, but maybe we should be.

How Kyler Improves With The Vikings

Offensive Line. According to PFF, the Vikings enter this season with the 12th ranked offensive line. Behind an expected above average offensive line, Kyler can have more time to show off his play extending ability we used to see. Worst case, he’s allowed extra wiggle room to escape the pocket or hit receivers further downfield. 

The Receiving Core. Trey McBride is elite, no doubt, but he's no Justin Jefferson. And behind Jefferson, the Vikings offer Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and to an extent if you believe he has anything left, T.J. Hockenson. Compared to the Cardinals, this is an upgrade for Kyler, teams will have to game plan and respect the weapons taking more of the defenses focus. He also supported DeAndre Hopkins as a good fantasy asset from 2020-2022 where he averaged 14.4, 12.6 and 13.3 Half-PPR Fantasy Points/Game (FP/G), but since? Not much else. Marvin Harrison Jr. has had a slow start to his career and not provided Kyler Murray with the weapon he nor the team expected in his first 2 years in the league. Jefferson is a top 5, real life receiver and remains a top pick in redraft leagues even after a down season in 2025, attributed to the team's disastrous QB play. Addison is no slouch himself as a formidable WR2 who’s posted Half-PPR FP/G numbers of 11.0 in 2023, 12.1 in 2024 and 8.2 in 2025.

Coaching Upgrade. The Vikings are coached by Kevin O'Connell and he’s proven to be one of the few coaches successful in unlocking his QBs potential. We watched Sam Darnold go from a bust with the Jets/Panthers, to winning the Super Bowl last season after a career resurgence in Minnesota. Go back to August 2024 and ask anyone their thoughts on Murray vs Darnold — the response would've been along the lines "of course Kyler is better?" KOC is jokingly or maybe not so jokingly deemed a QB whisperer, a coach who can extract his players skill set better than anyone at the position. And beyond Darnold, KOC coached Joshua Dobbs and Carson Wentz into looking better on the field than they had anywhere else. If Wentz doesn’t get hurt last season, there’s a chance we watch him remain the starter over J.J. McCarthy. Of every QB coached since Kirk Cousins left, it's arguable to say Kyler is confidently the second most talented QB for KOC to work with, behind the now SB champion, Sam Darnold, at least. Kevin O’Connell has proven to make the most from a rough QB carousel, I’m curious to see what he’s capable of drawing up for Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson.

The Last Box: Can He Pass?

We've covered the importance of rushing with QBs, confirmed Kyler's rushing stats hold up even in the worst of seasons, and noted his improved line, the upgraded receivers, and a coach that has shown multiple times to get the most out of his QB. That leaves the last box and oddly, for a QB, the one we’re looking at last. Is he a good enough passer to succeed?

Kyler can run. Everyone who cares enough to read this already knows or has learned from the above analysis. It's the surprise of his passing ability that has me considering him as a QB option late in my drafts. He is by no means an amazing passer, but he's performed better than his QB16-20 price implies. Below we can see his career stats over 6 different categories.

I was genuinely surprised to see Kyler Murray's completion rate. For reference, these ranks are compared against all QBs in 2026’s Top 30 ADP, those numbers rank:

• 2021 - 2nd
• 2022 - 9th
• 2023 - 12th
• 2024 - 7th
• 2025 - 5th
• Career Avg - 7th

For a brief comparison, here are the career completion percentages of other Top 12 QBs in 2026:

• Brock Purdy - 68%
• Kyler Murray - 67.7%
• Dak Prescott - 67.3%
• Justin Herbert - 66.3%

This isn't a “Kyler is a better passer” take. It’s about his ability to provide at least average passing while securing fantasy points with his legs.

Combine elite rushing ability with even league average passing numbers, and he becomes a hot waiver wire add or potentially he's already on your bench after reading this, ready to trade away or start for you without entering a waiver wire bidding war. If he finds passing success with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and KOC's play calls, there's a real scenario where Kyler sits as a fringe QB1 throughout the season. 

Historical QB Examples

Every year, at least one, if not multiple undrafted or late QBs makes the leap into QB1 territory. I believe Kyler can be one of these QBs in 2026. Here are examples going back to the last 5 seasons.

• 2025 — Trevor Lawrence: QB20 ADP → QB4
• 2024 — Baker Mayfield: QB21 → QB4
• 2023 — Brock Purdy: QB19 → QB6 
• 2022 — Daniel Jones: QB28 → QB9 
• 2021 — Kirk Cousins: QB18 → QB11

In each year, not one of these QBs were considered during drafts with ironically Kirk Cousins having the lowest QB ADP. Yet every year, like clock work, there’s a late QB who makes the jump to QB1 territory. Think back and try to remember your thoughts about Baker Mayfield before he had a career turn around in Tampa Bay, how some called Trevor Lawerance a bust and look at him now after last season. Why can’t Kyler Murray be the one to follow this trend in 2026?