Is the trend of the elite QB fading? We dive into QB draft theory and talk about one later QB who may be worth that Dart throw.

A Late Round Dart Throw

The 2025 season gave us one of the first clear examples against the early QB trend. Multiple of the early drafted QBs in 2025 failed to return their ADP value. The quarterback landscape might begin to shift away from drafting early elite QBs. Whether it be an unlucky injury to players like Lamar Jackson/Jayden Daniels, or a dip in production like Jalen Hurts posted in 2025. There is an inherent risk to your fantasy roster if you invest early in a top QB and for any multitude of reasons, they fail to live up to their draft cost. The allure of drafting a QB early is to provide a positional advantage at a onesie spot (Onesie = Single positional starters like QB or TE). This advantage is real when the player hits, but the investment into an elite onesie position comes with some risks. We can navigate these risks by identifying later round players who provide the same upside as early round QBs. Many fantasy managers attempt to predict the next later round breakout. However, the question is how do we find the needle in a hay stack?

Identifying a Breakout QB

In 2025, Drake Maye was a perfect example of a late round fantasy football draft pick everyone hoped to hit in the later rounds. Why was he going so late and why was this not identified amongst the general fantasy community?

One individual who was in on Maye from the start was JJ Zacharison. No one has consistently provided a better hit rate for late round QBs with high upside like JJ. His analysis leading up to the 2025 season highlighted specific metrics that signaled Maye’s breakout, and we can build on this to identify 2026 QBs.

Key indicators included:

• Fantasy points per drop back above league average
• Rushing attempts at a consistent weekly volume
• Rushing yards per attempt above 5.0
• Rushing touchdowns providing a high floor
• Unproven players

Maye checked a lot of boxes, and for the people who agreed with JJ’s analysis, they ended up with a league winning asset. The idea is simple: when a QB can score with his legs, the passing efficiency becomes less concerning because the rushing production provides a safety net.

If you missed out on Maye in last year's drafts, you know the sting. He was available in the mid to late rounds, his rushing floor was quietly elite, and when the season was over, he had delivered league winning production at a fraction of the draft cost.

Here’s where Jaxson Dart enters the conversation. His 2025 rookie season profile mirrors what we saw from Maye before his second year breakout. Dart enters his second season with an improved supporting cast, a proven head coach in John Harbaugh, and a full offseason as the entrenched starter. His rushing volume from year one suggests the Giants aren’t shy about letting him run. A sign that shouldn’t change under Harbaugh, who let Lamar Jackson live as a rushing threat early into his career in Baltimore.

When projecting QB fantasy value for 2026 redraft leagues, the question isn’t whether a young quarterback can throw because NFL coaches, let alone fantasy analysts, have a difficult time determining that volatility themselves. It’s whether these QBs can provide a rushing floor that creates weekly upside regardless of game script. Drake Maye’s 2024 into 2025 season supported the blueprint for identifying these breakout candidates.

Production Profile: Maye v Dart

Dart’s rookie season ended with the type of dual-threat production that should make fantasy players take note. He completed 216 of 339 passes for 2,272 yards, threw 15 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions, and added a rushing dimension that few rookie quarterbacks can match.

The comparison to Maye’s rookie season is striking. Both quarterbacks showed functional passing efficiency in difficult team environments, while their rushing numbers elevated their weekly ceilings beyond what their passing stats alone would suggest.

The Dart Data

Dart saw what Maye accomplished in 2024 and essentially told the fantasy community, anything you can do, I can do better. The metrics that identified Maye's breakout can be applied to the analysis of Dart.

In his rookie season, Dart averaged 8.56 fantasy points per game from rushing alone and that was the second-highest rate among all quarterbacks in 2025, behind only Josh Allen with 8.86 fantasy points per game from rushing. Let that number sink in for a moment. Over 8 fantasy points per game from rushing alone...

Dart didn't just beat Maye's rookie rushing output, he lapped the field with it. Most critically, this wasn't a small sample size as Dart also played in 12 full games. That is a legitimate, statistically meaningful sample size from a rookie.

At a per game rate, Dart was operating within striking distance of the most valuable rushing quarterback in fantasy football as a rookie, without his No. 1 target and in an unstable environment with the mid-season firing of their HC, Brian Daboll.

Dart’s 9 rushing touchdowns stand out as a particularly unreliable stat. Across all fantasy positions, touchdowns are by far the stat with the most variability and should not be relied on as a focus point. Dart proved he can score on the ground, but the limited data makes it hard to trust as a repeat performance compared to a Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts who have demonstrated for years that they can both consistently score 5+ rushing TDs a year. 

The New York Giants and Dart

Dart enters the 2026 season as the Giants’ quarterback in one of the highest pressure markets across the country. Unless you count Daniel Jones, New York hasn’t had QB stability since Eli Manning’s and the organization is betting on Dart to end that drought.

The structure around Dart couldn’t be better for his development. No one could imagine John Harbaugh and Baltimore parting ways this offseason. Now the new head coach for the Giants, Harbaugh spent years in Baltimore letting Lamar Jackson run freely as a young quarterback. Harbaugh’s system didn’t put limits on Jackson’s rushing ability early in his career. He built the offense around Jackson’s legs first, then expanded the passing game as Jackson matured. This same philosophy should benefit Dart, whose rushing profile (while less explosive than Lamar’s) still projects as a weapon Harbaugh will and should use aggressively.

Scheme Fit

We have seen OC Matt Nagy’s offense emphasize RPOs, play-action, and game concepts tailored to fast pace and aggressive play calling. Repeated targets to Nabers should be a staple of this offense, he's a young star receiver with the ability to make something out of nothing on any given play. For fantasy purposes, this means Dart’s ceiling includes high volume passing weeks when the run game gets going, while his rushing floor protects against games where the passing attack sputters.

Primary weapons for 2026:

• Malik Nabers is the clear cut WR1, but is also recovering from his Week 4 ACL tear and meniscus injury.
• A developing supporting cast at tight end position with Isaiah Likely + Theo Johnson.
• A sneaky good RB room pairing of Cam Skattebo + Tyrone Tracy.
• An offensive line unit that finished 9th best in PFF's final 2025 rankings, a massive improvement from 30th in 2024.

Risk Factors And Best Case Outcome

Now entering year two, Dart presents an intriguing value proposition that could mirror other successful QB breakouts we’ve seen in recent memory. Given the hype around Dart, we still need to keep in mind that young QBs carry a wide range of outcomes, and projections should build that volatility into rankings.

Primary Risk Factors:

• Coaching uncertainty is still present with any coaching staff change
• Aggressive play style = more injury concern
• Potential for a slow start with a young QB-WR core that has not played together

Best Case Scenario:

A top 5 fantasy QB finish if rushing volume stays consistent with last year, the Giants approach a league average pass rate, and Nabers returns to full explosiveness from his injury. This outcome mirrors what we saw from Maye in 2025 and Jayden Daniels during his rookie year. They are perfect examples of dual threat quarterbacks whose legs carried them into elite territory while maintaining respectable passing stats.

Can Dart be a League Winner?

If Dart is going as the QB8 or later in your drafts, he’s an instant smash, but it always depends on his ADP as draft season gets closer. You can also pair a quarterback with true upside because of his rushing ability with a different positional player from an earlier round that you wouldn't have been able to draft if you had decided on an early QB instead.

When to pivot:

• If ADP rises to QB5 or higher, the value evaporates
• If an elite QB like Josh Allen or Lamar falls past their typical range, take the sure thing
• If you can find comparable rushing upside at a later pick

Stack Potential:

Stacks are about opportunity in your draft, it's great when you secure one, but forcing a stack could derail your whole draft. Dart's later round ADP, paired with Malik Nabers, is one of the best QB-WR stacks for 2026 as you don't need to spend 2 early picks on that stack. Historical data shows QB-WR stacks outperform in tournaments and high stakes leagues. If you can grab both at reasonable ADP, you’ve set yourself up with built-in correlation that wins weeks.

Offseason Monitoring Notes:

Pay attention to the Giants’ designed rushes per game in preseason, and note how the new coaching staff speaks about Dart. These indicators will help identify whether to lock Dart in as a target even if his ADP rises leading up to drafts. If Harbaugh opens up the rushing playbook early, that’s a sign Dart’s value could exceed current expectations.

There are rumors circulating about the Giants drafting Love ,the clear cut rookie RB projected in the top 10 of the NFL draft. Of course it may very well be a smokescreen, but if the Giants end up bringing Love to NY, this could have a significant negative impact on Dart's rushing upside due to the skillset of the best RB prospect in the 2026 rookie class.

Dart is a high-upside asset with a stable floor whose 2025 season shows the pattern we’ve seen from QBs with strong rushing floors heading into year two. If the numbers hold and the coaching staff commits to his legs, you’re looking at one of the best QB value plays in 2026.