Early TEs are defined in their average draft position (ADP) every year and you can see the cutoff point between these early TEs and the rest of the position. In 2024, there were almost 2 full rounds between the TE2 Sam Laporta and the TE3 Trey McBride. In 2023, Travis Kelce was the consensus TE1 going in the middle of Round 1 and T.J Hockenson, the TE3, was going at the start of Round 5. The margins are incredibly wide, but for good reason. By taking a TE early, you lock in an almost guaranteed advantage over the rest of your league mates. Take 2025 for example. According to last year's ADP, there were 3 TEs drafted in the first 3 rounds. Trey McBride averaged a staggering 14.9 PPG (points per game) in half PPR formatting. Brock Bowers? 12.0 PPG. George Kittle? 12.1 PPG. Since Bowers and Kittle both missed multiple games last season, they finished as the overall TE9 and TE13 in total fantasy points. In 2025, the TE2 through TE8 in total points (highlighted in orange below) averaged between 8.8 and 10.3 PPG.

If you drafted McBride last year you were outscoring your league mates at the TE position by 4-6 PPG, even if they had the next best players who were fully healthy. That’s a monumental advantage, but of course there’s a tradeoff. By drafting a TE in the Round 2 or 3, you’re sacrificing drafting a RB/WR in that range that could be a real difference maker (2025 JSN and 2023 Amon-Ra St. Brown are the 2 most recent examples of this). There’s a healthy balance of risk and reward, but this article is catered to all types of players, regardless of whether you’re the diehard early TE fanatic, the “it depends on the player and the price” player, or the “I draft my TE late every year without fail and hope for the best” type of player (usually me), this article will hopefully give you an early TE pessimist’s more optimistic view on the strategy this year, as well as the reasoning behind which of the 2 candidates I’m high on and which I’m avoiding at ADP at all costs. Let’s dive in.

Trey McBride

Trey McBride was HIM in 2025. He was one of only 2 TEs to play at least 15 games and average 10+ PPG in half PPR formatting. Dallas Goedert barely snuck into this bracket, playing 15 games with a 10.3 PPG average. McBride played the full 17 game season and averaged a monstrous 14.9 PPG, a full 5.1 extra points every single game than TE2 Kyle Pitts managed to haul in. To put into perspective just how dominant  he was, in the history of fantasy football, the only TEs to outproduce McBride’s 252.9 point 2025 season were Rob Gronkowski in 2011, Jimmy Graham in 2013 and Travis Kelce in 2020 and 2022. That’s the fantasy peak of both the Brady-Gronk and the Mahomes-Kelce eras, and McBride was right up there with those all time great performances. So obviously you’re thinking “Wow Cushy, Trey McBride is not only at his personal peak, but he’s within touching distance of the historical peak of the TE position. SURELY you’re not about to segue into why he’s the guy you’re avoiding at ADP, right?” Well without further ado, I’m about to segue into why Trey McBride is the guy I’m avoiding at ADP.

Offensive Coordinator Change

First and foremost I need to make something clear… I’m avoiding McBride AT ADP, not overall. If he magically falls to the 4th round, I will welcome him onto my roster with open arms. On ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo and Underdog, his ADP across all 4 sites averages out at 2.12, coincidentally the exact same as his counterpart Brock Bowers. Fantasy football players in 2026 are effectively being asked to predict which of McBride and Bowers is more likely to replicate Trey McBride’s 2025 season. It seems counterintuitive to suggest that the answer isn’t McBride, but hear me out and I’ll give you a handful of reasons why I’m just not as bullish on the reigning TE1 this time around. 

Let’s start with the OC situation,  which in a practical sense is hard to directly correlate to a prediction of declined production for McBride, but it’s worth talking about. It’s hard to view this factor as predictive because Arizona’s departed OC Drew Petzing has only ever had McBride as his starting TE in his time as an offensive play caller in the league. In his 3 years with the Cardinals, McBride ranked 6th (2023), 2nd (2024) and 1st (2025) in targets, so the question is, was that down to Petzing being known for getting the most out of his TEs, McBride getting the most out of his offensive play callers regardless of how good or bad they are, or a bit of both? I’m far more interested in the newly appointed Cardinals’ OC, Nathaniel Hackett’s production history with TEs during his long tenure in the league as the offensive play caller for each respective team he coached.

Want to see the stats? Of course you do.

Buffalo Bills OC (2013-14)

2013 - Scott Chandler: 102.0 FP (TE17), 6.4 PPG, 15th in targets

2014 - Scott Chandler: 91.2 FP (TE21), 5.7 PPG, 20th in targets

Jacksonville Jaguars OC (2016-18)

2016 - Julius Thomas & Marcedes Lewis (split games due to injury): 100.0 FP (TE21), 6.3 PPG, 20th in targets

2017 - Marcedes Lewis: 75.8 FP (TE25), 4.7 PPG, 29th in targets

2018 - James O’Shaughnessy: 22.6 FP (TE54), 2.5 PPG, 35th in targets

Green Bay Packers OC (2019-21)

2019 - Jimmy Graham: 81.7 FP (TE22), 5.1 PPG, 18th in targets

2020 - Robert Tonyan: 150.6 FP (TE4), 9.4 PPG, 24th in targets*

2021 - Josiah Deguara: 49.0 FP (TE41), 3.5 PPG, 42nd in targets

Denver Broncos HC (2022)

2022 - Greg Dulcich: 69.6 FP (TE23), 7.0 PPG, 22nd in targets

New York Jets OC (2023-24)

2023 - Tyler Conklin: 92.6 FP (TE20), 5.4 PPG, 13th in targets

2024 - Tyler Conklin (through 5 games before Hackett was fired): 26.6 FP (TE14), 5.3 PPG, 8th in targets

*Robert Tonyan’s TE4 season was due to insane over-efficiency. He had less targets than George Kittle, who played 8 games compared to Tonyan’s 16, but Tonyan led the TE position in touchdowns and was scoring one every 5.3 targets he amassed, which is a complete outlier. He was only targeted on 11.8% of all Packers’ passing attempts. 

All of this is to say that apart from one fluke outlier season, Hackett’s history with TEs is undeniably abysmal. Bear in mind that McBride is head and shoulder above any TE Hackett has coached in terms of talent, so I don't think that McBride’s production will dip to the levels you see above. I do however think that going from a pass happy offense and OC that at the very worst was willing to spam him with targets, to an OC who hasn’t had his starting TE finish top 12 in targets over a full season could limit the ceiling outcome for McBride.

2025 Overusage

Trey McBride ran an absolutely absurd number of routes in 2025, 667 to be exact, leading not only the TE position, but the entire league. The next highest number of routes run by a TE in 2025 was Travis Kelce with 511. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews’ 602 routes run in 2021 is the 2nd highest over the last 5 years. In that same time span, the average starting TE runs roughly 25-30 routes per game (425-510 in a season). McBride in 2025? 39 routes per game. Let’s say across a 17 game season, a TE runs the higher end of that of 30 routes per game for 510 across the season, right where Kelce was in 2025 as the TE2 in routes run. McBride ran 157 extra routes above the average, and if we divide that 157 by 30, we have 5 extra games worth of routes run by the TE1 last year. That’s like playing an entire 4-5 games from running an above average number of routes every single week. 

In our 2nd ever podcast episode back in March, which you can listen to on Spotify and at https://www.thefantasycompass.com/podcasts/ we discussed Jonathan Taylor’s 2025 usage, and explained with historical data that RBs that have been “overused” if they reach 370+ touches the prior season and tend to have a dip in production the following season, from injury or regression in their volume. Normally for a RB to amass 370+ touches, there’s at least one rare and circumstantial reason behind it. I believe that rare and circumstantial reason can be applied to Trey McBride’s 2025 season, given that 667 routes is head and shoulders above anything we’ve seen from the TE position in the last 5 years.

Not only did he have the most TE friendly QB of the last 5 years, but also Arizona’s run game was effectively non-existent with all their injuries. They ranked 31st in the league in total rushing yards, and because of the fact that they were losing almost every week (1 win in their last 15 games), they were passing the ball at an insane rate (1st overall in the league in passing attempts). Let’s put this into perspective for a second. In 2025, where their respective team lost a minimum of 10 games, here are the leaders in targets per game (TGT/G):

Not only did he have the most TE friendly QB of the last 5 years, but also Arizona’s run game was effectively non-existent with all their injuries. They ranked 31st in the league in total rushing yards, and because of the fact that they were losing almost every week (1 win in their last 15 games), they were passing the ball at an insane rate (1st overall in the league in passing attempts). Let’s put this into perspective for a second. In 2025, where their respective team lost a minimum of 10 games.

Here are the leaders in targets per game (TGT/G):

1. J. Chase - 10.4 TGT/G (10 losses)
2. T. McBride - 10.1 TGT/G (14 losses)
3. C. Olave - 9.2 TGT/G (10 losses)
4. W. Robinson - 8.3 TGT/G (13 losses)
5. M. Wilson - 8.1 TGT/G (14 losses)

McBride led the whole league in targets during games where a player’s team lost (142), which in itself makes sense because the Cardinals were tied for the most losses in 2025, but when you learn that 2nd place in that category was fellow Cardinal Michael Wilson with 114, you realize the extent of how much more their team was passing the ball than everyone else. In the 3 games Arizona won, McBride’s TGT/G dropped to 7.7, albeit the sample size is small and 2 of those 3 games were with Kyler where McBride’s targets were generally few and far between. It’s hard to say that McBrides fantasy success is only due to his team losing a majority of the time which leads to significantly higher targets than expected. Will that trend continue in 2026 though? Let’s take a look and find out.

Offseason Moves And 2026 Expectations

The Cardinals want to balance the scales a bit offensively, which is why they made a big statement drafting the highly touted RB prospect Jeremiyah Love with the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Gone are the days of Emari Demercado dropping the ball right before running into the endzone for a 72 yard touchdown. We expect a more balanced approach from the Cardinals’ offense in 2026, which could certainly decrease the number of routes McBride will run. 

To circle back on McBride’s production when his team is losing vs winning, there’s some positive outlooks for him this year.  According to Warren Sharp's schedule analysis, the Cardinals have the hardest overall schedule for 2026. Largely due to sharing a division with 3 playoff calibre teams that include the Super Bowl champions Seattle Seahawks and a tough AFC West division, particularly the Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs (sorry Raider Nation). There’s a high probability the Cardinals are a bottom 5 team again, which may lead to the same “sling the ball” all game mentality if forced to keep up with their opponents.

Potential QB Carousel

Jacoby Brissett signed a new one year deal worth $15.5 million, retaining his starting spot for the time being. This is great for McBride, given that Brissett is known to target his TEs aggressively. In 2025, 33% of his targets went to a TE, and I mean sure, Brisset had arguably the best TE in the league so why wouldn’t he? It gets more interesting when you realize that from 2021-2025 his TE target percentage was still 31% and leads the league ahead of Lamar Jackson at 30%(Andrews) and Patrick Mahomes at 29%. This bodes well for McBride, but the question is what if the Cardinals have another poor season? We discussed how they have the toughest schedule and they just drafted Carson Beck with the first pick in the 3rd round of the draft in April. We’ve seen it before where teams who are well out of playoff contention sub in their rookie in the late stage of the season to assess the talent they have over the final few games (eg: Kirk Cousins benched for Michael Penix in 2024, Tua Tagovailoa benched for Quinn Ewers in 2025). There’s a world where McBride could see a QB change around the fantasy football playoffs that creates uncertainty to his production at the most pivotal time of the season for managers. 

My 2026 McBride Outlook

If you’ve read this far, you already know what I’m about to say here. I believe there is a low probability for Trey McBride to repeat his 2025 production. The negative game scripts will work in his favor, but there are so many factors I’m concerned about. 

• Potential QB carousel during fantasy playoffs
• A heavy offseason investment into the run game 
• The threat of the receiving room presenting more competition
• Workload effects on his health after playing practically a 22 game season.

Any one of these worries becoming a reality could have a damaging effect on McBride’s production in 2026, and personally I’m out on him at ADP. If he falls enough, I’ll comfortably take him, given if he manages to avoid the above concerns, I expect him to have a good season, finish as a Top 2-4 TE and still provide a big advantage over your league mates at the TE position. It’s just not a risk that I am willing to take, when the alternative option looks less risky. Speaking of which, let’s address said alternative option with Brock Bowers.

Brock Bowers

Yes….I know….I’m a Raiders fan and yes….I own a Brock Bowers jersey, but no, these aren’t the driving factors behind why I think he’s the clear choice for those who want to dabble drafting an early TE in 2026. Bowers’ 2025 season was doomed from the start when he suffered a PCL injury and a bone bruise in Week 1 against the Patriots. He played through the injury as much as possible despite missing 3 games. Later in the season, he was placed on IR to miss the final 2 games. He’s fully healthy now, so no injury concerns remain heading into the season. With Bowers missing 5 games, and McBride effectively playing 5 extra games, there’s no denying that Bowers will be at the very least a little fresher coming into the 2026 season. I’ll give him a point over McBride in terms of who is less likely to suffer from physical burnout in 2026. 

The Raiders’ Offense

If you thought a receiving room of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson made for easy pickings for Trey McBride, wait until you see who the Raiders have ‘competing’ with Bowers for catches. Jalen Nailor, Tre Tucker and Jack Bech. Not a single top 36 fantasy WR season among them. Bowers’ total points last season despite missing 5 and a half games was higher than any single season put together by anyone in the Raiders’ WR room. Pair that with the fact that the Raiders got a decent QB upgrade, moving from the disastrous Geno Smith to the less disastrous, slightly steadier Kirk Cousins, along with the actual #1 draft pick in Fernando Mendoza, and there’s a lot of reason to believe that Bowers could come straight out and dominate in 2026. If it couldn’t get any better for him, he’s now free of the Pete Carroll offensive system, and is now in the safe hands of Super Bowl 60 winning offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The new Raiders HC recently described Bowers as “a football robot from heaven”, and will make him the center piece of his offensive scheme. Speculation suggests that Kirk Cousins will hold the starting QB job for the Raiders for most of if not the whole season in 2026. For all of his flaws, Cousins is very good at one specific thing: feeding his #1 target. In 2024, Drake London had a 24.6% target share on the Falcons while Cousins was active, ranking 9th among players who played at least 14 games across that 17 game season. Justin Jefferson on the Vikings the 2 years prior? 26.0% and 26.6% target shares. Similarly to McBride, there’s a chance that Cousins takes a back seat to Mendoza at some point during the season, but I have much more belief in Mendoza’s talent as the number 1 overall selection, than I do in Beck’s.

My 2026 Bowers Outlook

Brock Bowers' section is noticeably shorter than McBride’s, and I believe that’s reflective of the difference in complexity of each player’s situation this year. Bowers has arguably the biggest disparity in talent between himself and the other receiving options around him on the Raiders. Coupled with taking the Super Bowl winning offensive play caller from Seattle and a QB who has a proven track record of hammering his best player with targets, Bowers is as good a bet as any to be a league winning asset.

Puka Nacua broke the rookie single season receptions record in 2023 with 105 catches only for Bowers to top it the following year with 112 catches to snatch the record for himself. My bold prediction for the 2026 season is that Bowers will beat McBride’s record for the most receptions by a TE in a single season. Breaking records isn’t easy by any means, but I think he will not have an easier path to achieving it then the situation he finds himself in for 2026.

Conclusion

McBride and Bowers are both elite talents at the TE position, but for me there’s a clear leader to have the next elite performance. With a lot more variables in McBride’s outlook, it’s hard to warrant spending a late 2nd round pick on him, when I can instead draft a guy with little to no concerns regarding his team situation. For what it’s worth, I don’t think drafting McBride is going to cost you any chance of winning your league, but upside is what we’re aiming for. In my opinion the TE with the highest upside is Brock Bowers, and he is who I’m recommending if you’re drafting an early TE in 2026.

The year is 2024, Ferg and I were drafting in a 12 team online friend league where I’d drawn up a plan for my draft that I was confident in, providing I acquired my target players. In the first 5 rounds, I’d picked up a nice quartet of wide receivers (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, Devonta Smith and Rashee Rice) as well as De’Von Achane in round 2, who I was high on that year. Achane was my insurance policy as a hero RB, if you will. In round 6, I drafted Najee Harris as my 2nd RB and in round 7 I grabbed Jayden Daniels. I really wanted Brock Bowers in round 8 but he was taken a few picks ahead of me, leaving me with Jake Ferguson as my tight end. That snipe still haunts me to this day given that Bowers finished as the TE1 while Ferguson was the TE30 that year. I didn't get tilted, brushed off missing out on Bowers and sprung into action to continue the focal point of my strategy with Chase Brown in round 9 and Bucky Irving in round 14. Sure, the core of that roster was extremely productive, but the satisfying part was due to the production of the late round sleepers of RBs in ambiguous backfields. Chase Brown had questionable competition in Zack Moss. Meanwhile, the high upside receiving back in Bucky Irving, who despite having to share a backfield with 2023 RB7 Rachaad White, was the talk of training camp in Tampa Bay, putting him on my own and many others’ radars. Brown went on to finish as the RB12 and Bucky the RB14, an extremely pleasing return on such low cost investments. Ambiguous backfields create these opportunities for incredible breakouts, unexpected or bounce back seasons for all player types ranging from a promising rookie to a declining vet, because the price of the players in these RB rooms are dirt cheap and they could very easily claim their team’s starting job. It’s a literal cheat code when your 1st round RB is on a bye week in a crucial matchup for you in your league, and you can plug in your 10th round steal who goes on to notch up double digit points, winning the matchup for you and having your opponent scratching their head wondering why they were watching ‘awkward kid falls in creek’ on YouTube during the late rounds of the draft instead of planning for the championship rounds. These are the moves which separate the players collecting their league winnings at the end of the year vs the ones sending those dreaded cashapp payments. Enough rambling, let’s get into it.

In most cases, an ambiguous RB room is where two or more RBs on the same NFL team have similarly low ADPs from a lack of information on who will win the starting job. There are numerous scenarios for this, including, but not limited to both players being viewed to have roughly the same skill level, the veteran in the RB room performing poorly in the previous year, the young promising talent isn’t a sure thing for carries, or a new coaching change brings uncertainty to the starter. 

Prior examples and results of ambiguous backfields

ADP rounds and finishes are based on 12 team half PPR leagues.

2025

Travis Etienne (JAX)

RB Roommate = Bhayshul Tuten (ADP: RB48)

Etienne ADP = RB31 (Round 8)

Finish = RB10 (13.9 PPG)

Javonte Williams (DAL)

RB Roommate = Jaydon Blue (ADP: RB45)

Williams ADP = RB41 (Round 10)

Finish = RB11 (14.1 PPG)

Cam Skattebo (NYG)

RB Roommate = Tyrone Tracy (ADP: RB28)

Skattebo ADP = RB38 (Round 9)

Finish = RB39 (14.5 PPG)

Skattebo is included because he was comfortably leading the backfield and on pace for a top 10 RB finish after 8 games before suffering a season ending injury.

2024

Chase Brown (CIN)

RB Roommate = Zack Moss (ADP: RB29)

ADP = RB37 (Round 9)

Finish = RB12 (14.3 PPG)

Chuba Hubbard (CAR)

RB Roommate = Jonathon Brooks (ADP: RB34)

Hubbard ADP = RB42 (Round 11)

Finish = RB15 (14.7 PPG)

2023

Raheem Mostert & De’Von Achane (MIA)

Mostert ADP = RB39 (Round 10)

Achane ADP = RB43 (Round 11)

Finishes = RB2 (17.0 PPG) & RB24 (16.1 PPG)

Isiah Pacheco (KC)

RB Roommate = Jerick McKinnon (ADP: RB42)

Pacheco ADP = RB29 (Round 7)

Finish = RB16 (13.7 PPG)

The last few years worth of data shows we can clearly see that every year you have the opportunity to identify ambiguous backfields and reap the rewards. Of course, identifying the backfield and selecting the right player are two separate tasks, so let's discuss which specific players I’ve got my eye on in 2026.

Who I Like In 2026

Rachaad White (WAS)

I strongly believe the closest comparison we have to 2025 Javonte Williams is going to be 2026 Rachaad White. Javonte came off a 2024 season where he finished as the RB31, averaging 7.8 points per game in half PPR formats. He signed a 1 year, $3 million deal with the Cowboys and entered a Running Back room with little proven talent in Jaydon Blue. As a result, his ADP entering the 2025 season was RB41. In comparison, Rachaad White finished the 2025 season as the RB34 averaging 7.4 points per game, signed a 1 year $2 million deal with the Commanders and joined a RB room with a relatively unproven player in Jacory Croskey-Merritt. ‘Bill’ is a polarising name in the fantasy football world, but he’s not a bell cow. The ADP reflects that, with both Croskey-Merritt and White firmly settled in round 10 as of July 2026. Not only have we seen White handle a bell cow workload in 2023 before Bucky entered the fray, but he’s the far superior receiving option to Bill. I predict White will be on the field more often and get the heavier share of the workload. The only concern I have is in the redzone, where Croskey-Merritt was efficient in 2025, punching in 7 touchdowns on 26 attempts. Even still, my eggs are very much in the Rachaad White basket. 

Chris Rodriguez (JAX)

After a quietly solid end to the 2025 season, where in his final 4 games Rodriguez scored 3 touchdowns and put up 3 double digits performances, he heads off to Jacksonville on a 2 year $10 million deal to join Bhayshul Tuten. I believe both players will compliment each other nicely, with Tuten being the home run hitter and Rodriguez getting early down and redzone work. The main difference between them for me is their price. As of July 2026, Tuten is hovering around the 6th round in ADP, whereas Rodriguez is double that, down in the 12th round. Tuten is an exciting prospect but a prospect nonetheless, and hasn’t shown us that he’s locked down the starting job all for himself. Tuten has a good chance of breaking out this year, but I’m far happier betting a 12th round pick on a guy who’s shown that he’s no slouch in a contested backfield, as well as the clear favorite to snatch up any valuable redzone carries. I think this is one of the more sneaky high value ‘handcuffs’ to pick up in fantasy football in 2026 with Tuten’s uncertainty and the high power offense expected out of Jacksonville this year. 

Jonathon Brooks (CAR)

This one is more of a wildcard pick, because my advice here revolves around the fact that Dave Canales always found a way to produce a top 16 running back across each of the 3 seasons he’s been the offensive play caller in Tampa Bay and Carolina respectively. His run schemes are great for fantasy football, and he’s never had to rely on a Bijan Robinson or a Christian McCaffrey to make it happen. This year it’s Chuba Hubbard vs Jonathon Brooks, both of whom have their pros and cons. Chuba was extremely unimpressive last year and even lost control of the RB room to Rico Dowdle, however it’s worth noting that he suffered a calf injury in the first few weeks of the season. Now 10 months removed from said injury, he could bounce back to his peak level in 2024 which would be a solid return on a currently priced round 7 investment. Brooks however, is sitting in the 11th round on most sites as of July 2026. That’s a much cheaper risk to take, but baked into that price is the fact that he suffered 2 ACL tears in the space of 13 months. After sitting out the full 2025 season he’s back in action, and training camp reports have been very positive. The talent was always there with Brooks, hence why the Panthers selected him in the 2nd round of the 2024 draft. There’s absolutely a world where at just 23 years old come September, he effectively enters the league as a rookie and reminds us why the Panthers originally drafted him to replace Chuba. Perhaps we just had to wait a couple of years for that to happen.

Kenneth Gainwell (TB)

Being an NFL fan in Ireland has plenty of disadvantages. Having to stay up to the ungodly hours of the morning 3 nights a week can be painful, but I do it for the love of the game. The advantage finally arrived when I was sitting in Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland, in September 2025 waiting for the Steelers vs Vikings game to start. I was watching Jaylen Warren tentatively warming up, looking uncomfortable and in pain after carrying a Questionable tag all week. Seeing as I had Jaylen Warren in my starting lineup in one of my leagues, I made the quick decision to pick up Kenneth Gainwell from free agency while the 11 Americans in my league were all barely waking up, and then when it’s announced that Warren is out, I slotted Gainwell into my flex spot and watched him score 2 touchdowns, putting up 28.4 fantasy points right in front of my eyes and to the dismay of my uncle and cousin who were sitting right next to me, dressed from head to toe in Viking purple. These are the sort of performances that earn you a 2 year, $14 million deal to head down to Tampa Bay and back up Bucky Irving. I get it, technically, this isn’t an ambiguous backfield. Everyone knows Bucky is the starter, but everyone also knows that Bucky missed 7 full games last year with a plethora of different on and off the field issues. Gainwell’s receiving upside is what the Bucs are looking for with the departure of Rachaad White, and if Bucky is marred with injuries for a 2nd consecutive season, we could really benefit from spending a 9th round pick on a guy who just last year hit double digit fantasy points in 7 games, 3 of which he went for 20+.

Jordan Mason (MIN)

Yes, I know, you’ve spent 30 seconds squinting to make sure you read that correctly. I, for the first time ever, am advocating that you DRAFT Jordan Mason AT ADP AND NO EARLIER. An 11th round pick will cost you nothing and there’s no clear defined leader in the Minnesota RB room. I’m personally taking this shot with the hope that the Vikings are better offensively than last year, now that he shouldn’t be starting this year or any year for the rest of eternity for that matter. An improved offense equals a greater chance of redzone activity which indicates that  maybe the 230lb back will get the occasional goal line carry. Aaron Jones’ ADP is solidly in the 9th round and he’s missed 5+ games in 2 of his last 3 seasons, so there’s definitely a chance that Mason can take the room for himself if he plays well enough or if Jones goes down to injury once again. This is my least favorite shout, but I believe it’s absolutely worth talking about because next to no one is really recommending investing in this particular RB room.

Why Justin Jefferson Is a League-Winning Pick

Jefferson’s current draft position (consensus ADP settling at picks 10-12 across multiple sites) is unusual for a player with the proven ceiling that he possesses, and we at The Fantasy Compass believe that you, yes you, should indulge us in diving deeper to find out just why he's head and shoulders above the other names going around him.

• Historical Dominance: Multiple seasons above 1,400 receiving yards (4 seasons where he had 8-10 points per game in fantasy football without even taking into account receptions or touchdowns)
• Consistent Elite Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th place finishes among wide receivers in his 4 seasons where he wasn't injured or subjected to having J.J McCarthy as his QB
• Makes A Lot Out Of A Little: Across his career, Jefferson's starting QBs have been Kirk Cousins, Sean Mannion, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, Sam Darnold, J.J McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer. You can make a case for Darnold after he also supplied JSN with a WR2 overall finish in 2026, but it's not as if Jefferson has benefited from having a true franchise QB like Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow. He's had slightly above average at best QB play across his career, and yet when he's healthy, he's finished as a top 5 wide receiver in 4 out of 5 seasons.
• True Alpha Receiver In A Shoddy Room: The names of Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson might sound a little uncomfortable, but the reality is that Addison is a touchdown dependent deep threat who has never posed a serious challenge to Jefferson's production, and Hockenson is coming off 5.8 and 6.6 point per game seasons in 2024 and 2025 respectively. JJ doesn't have a Tee Higgins, a Devonta Smith, a George Pickens, or a Trey McBride, a Brock Bowers, a George Kittle who are all serious threats to most alpha wide receivers, unless your name is Ja'Marr Chase of course.

2025 And Why His ADP Has Fallen

Jefferson's 2025 season represented a statistical down year by his enormous standards, finishing with 84 receptions for 1,048 yards and only 2 receiving touchdowns. His underlying metrics however, were very respectable:

• 6th among wide receivers in targets
• 10th in receptions
• 11th in receiving yards

The statistic that's flashing in red with a siren noise in the background is of course those 2 touchdowns he managed to grab. Even in 2023 when he missed almost half the season, he caught 5 touchdowns. His 4 healthy seasons? 7-10 each year. His 2025 touchdown number is an anomaly, and we fully expect to see positive regression all the way back up to that nice 7-10 number he's boasted almost every season in his career. If we gave JJ his career worst number of touchdowns in his 4 healthy seasons (7) instead of 2, that's a 30 point boost to his overall production, bringing him from WR25 to WR10, a far more respectable finish.

The Kyler Effect

2026 brings a significant upgrade at quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. After playing with a washed Carson Wentz and a flop in J.J McCarthy in 2025, Jefferson gets paired with a QB who has experience playing with high-level talent. Throughout his career, Kyler has supplied 100+ target seasons to Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, DeAndre Hopkins, Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. His passing touchdown rate across his 4 healthy seasons (20-26 touchdowns) can be compared to the likes of 2025 Sam Darnold, 2024 Jayden Daniels and 2023 Jalen Hurts, who all delivered a top 5 finish to a wide receiver in each of those respective years while having a touchdown total in that 20-26 range that Kyler historically meets when healthy. On top of that, head coach Kevin O'Connell has been known to be a QB whisperer, coaching high performing passing offenses out of the likes of Cousins and Darnold, neither of which have ever been believed to be elite. The optimism grows...

2026 Floor & Ceiling Projection

Floor: It can't get any worse than 2025. We expect Jefferson's floor to be a low end WR1, somewhere in the 175-190 point range in half-ppr formatting, where he would've been in 2025 with a more realistic touchdown number than the measly 2 he was provided with.

Ceiling: Overall WR1, no questions asked. We've seen this from Jefferson with average QBs before, so all Kyler needs to do is be average and we'll see the Justin Jefferson that we know and love. A player with this high a ceiling should not be going in the late 1st round, so capitalize on overly cautious drafting from your leaguemates who aren't so sure that JJ will fully bounce back, and take the potential WR1 whenever he falls to you.

ADP Outlook

We wrote earlier in the article about that historical proven ceiling that Jefferson has hit. That WR1 overall potential that every fantasy player craves to find every time they click on the position tab to draft their next pass-catcher. The real question is, which receivers are currently valued around JJ in ADP, and what have they done in their careers thus far?

• CeeDee Lamb: Ranking just above Jefferson as of right now, CeeDee is probably the closest comparison that we have to him. The two were drafted together in 2020, and CeeDee has had the higher peak in fantasy, but when he hasn't peaked, it's often been a little uncomfortable. Aside from his astronomical 2023 season, he hasn't produced anywhere near his ceiling, and his next highest point total falls shy of 3 out of JJ's 4 healthy seasons. It's not unfair to say that CeeDee's peak was an anomaly season for him across 6 years in the league, and aside from that, Jefferson bests him almost every time when the two are healthy. This particular head to head will be very fun to watch in 2026.
• Malik Nabers: We don't have a lot to go off with Nabers, but in his healthy rookie season he flashed a WR7 finish with 219.1 points. That's very nice, and he should be due a bounce back year after his injury marred season in 2025, but 219.1 points is a lower total than all 4 of JJ's healthy seasons. Nabers will theoretically be an elite player, but hasn't yet reached the peaks that we've seen from Jefferson.
• Drake London: It's fair to say that London is in the same category as Nabers, a theoretically elite fantasy asset. His 230.8 point season in 2024 is easy on the eye, but only eclipses JJ's rookie season by a single point, and falls short of his other 3 healthy seasons by some distance. If you believe that JJ will bounce back, the decision should be easy for you to take the guy who's produced the 300 point season before, as opposed to the guy who COULD do it.
• Nico Collins: This feels like a stretch to include Nico, but the reality is that he has slowly crept into the top 15 picks in ADP across sites in the past few weeks, which makes him worth mentioning. He too however, is another example of a theoretical elite. His career high fantasy points finish of 221.4 in 2023 falls short of every healthy season that JJ has produced. There's just no comparison in our minds.

Summary: The Fantasy Compass Verdict on Justin Jefferson

We're heavily advocating for JJ this season, not only because of his cheaper than normal ADP, but because the receivers going right above and below him simply do not boast his consistent ceiling. CeeDee had an anomaly season amongst a bunch of very good-great ones, whilst Nabers, London and Nico simply have not reached the peaks that Jefferson has when healthy/paired with at average or above QB. These are great reasons to invest if you're drafting in the mid-late 1st round this year, and given that 2025 was an anomaly year for him backed up by the data above, we're not anywhere near as worried as a lot of people are that he's going to suffer the same fate this time around.

We’ll continue tracking Jefferson’s ADP projections, injury updates, as well as the results of the impending QB battle throughout the year to help you stay ahead of the curve regarding one of the few players who can truly break the game from the late first round.

Identifying a Breakout QB

In 2025, Drake Maye was a perfect example of a late round fantasy football draft pick everyone hoped to hit in the later rounds. Why was he going so late and why was this not identified amongst the general fantasy community?

One individual who was in on Maye from the start was JJ Zacharison. No one has consistently provided a better hit rate for late round QBs with high upside like JJ. His analysis leading up to the 2025 season highlighted specific metrics that signaled Maye’s breakout, and we can build on this to identify 2026 QBs.

Key indicators included:

• Fantasy points per drop back above league average
• Rushing attempts at a consistent weekly volume
• Rushing yards per attempt above 5.0
• Rushing touchdowns providing a high floor
• Unproven players

Maye checked a lot of boxes, and for the people who agreed with JJ’s analysis, they ended up with a league winning asset. The idea is simple: when a QB can score with his legs, the passing efficiency becomes less concerning because the rushing production provides a safety net.

If you missed out on Maye in last year's drafts, you know the sting. He was available in the mid to late rounds, his rushing floor was quietly elite, and when the season was over, he had delivered league winning production at a fraction of the draft cost.

Here’s where Jaxson Dart enters the conversation. His 2025 rookie season profile mirrors what we saw from Maye before his second year breakout. Dart enters his second season with an improved supporting cast, a proven head coach in John Harbaugh, and a full offseason as the entrenched starter. His rushing volume from year one suggests the Giants aren’t shy about letting him run. A sign that shouldn’t change under Harbaugh, who let Lamar Jackson live as a rushing threat early into his career in Baltimore.

When projecting QB fantasy value for 2026 redraft leagues, the question isn’t whether a young quarterback can throw because NFL coaches, let alone fantasy analysts, have a difficult time determining that volatility themselves. It’s whether these QBs can provide a rushing floor that creates weekly upside regardless of game script. Drake Maye’s 2024 into 2025 season supported the blueprint for identifying these breakout candidates.

Production Profile: Maye v Dart

Dart’s rookie season ended with the type of dual-threat production that should make fantasy players take note. He completed 216 of 339 passes for 2,272 yards, threw 15 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions, and added a rushing dimension that few rookie quarterbacks can match.

The comparison to Maye’s rookie season is striking. Both quarterbacks showed functional passing efficiency in difficult team environments, while their rushing numbers elevated their weekly ceilings beyond what their passing stats alone would suggest.

The Dart Data

Dart saw what Maye accomplished in 2024 and essentially told the fantasy community, anything you can do, I can do better. The metrics that identified Maye's breakout can be applied to the analysis of Dart.

In his rookie season, Dart averaged 8.56 fantasy points per game from rushing alone and that was the second-highest rate among all quarterbacks in 2025, behind only Josh Allen with 8.86 fantasy points per game from rushing. Let that number sink in for a moment. Over 8 fantasy points per game from rushing alone...

Dart didn't just beat Maye's rookie rushing output, he lapped the field with it. Most critically, this wasn't a small sample size as Dart also played in 12 full games. That is a legitimate, statistically meaningful sample size from a rookie.

At a per game rate, Dart was operating within striking distance of the most valuable rushing quarterback in fantasy football as a rookie, without his No. 1 target and in an unstable environment with the mid-season firing of their HC, Brian Daboll.

Dart’s 9 rushing touchdowns stand out as a particularly unreliable stat. Across all fantasy positions, touchdowns are by far the stat with the most variability and should not be relied on as a focus point. Dart proved he can score on the ground, but the limited data makes it hard to trust as a repeat performance compared to a Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts who have demonstrated for years that they can both consistently score 5+ rushing TDs a year. 

The New York Giants and Dart

Dart enters the 2026 season as the Giants’ quarterback in one of the highest pressure markets across the country. Unless you count Daniel Jones, New York hasn’t had QB stability since Eli Manning’s and the organization is betting on Dart to end that drought.

The structure around Dart couldn’t be better for his development. No one could imagine John Harbaugh and Baltimore parting ways this offseason. Now the new head coach for the Giants, Harbaugh spent years in Baltimore letting Lamar Jackson run freely as a young quarterback. Harbaugh’s system didn’t put limits on Jackson’s rushing ability early in his career. He built the offense around Jackson’s legs first, then expanded the passing game as Jackson matured. This same philosophy should benefit Dart, whose rushing profile (while less explosive than Lamar’s) still projects as a weapon Harbaugh will and should use aggressively.

Scheme Fit

We have seen OC Matt Nagy’s offense emphasize RPOs, play-action, and game concepts tailored to fast pace and aggressive play calling. Repeated targets to Nabers should be a staple of this offense, he's a young star receiver with the ability to make something out of nothing on any given play. For fantasy purposes, this means Dart’s ceiling includes high volume passing weeks when the run game gets going, while his rushing floor protects against games where the passing attack sputters.

Primary weapons for 2026:

• Malik Nabers is the clear cut WR1, but is also recovering from his Week 4 ACL tear and meniscus injury.
• A developing supporting cast at tight end position with Isaiah Likely + Theo Johnson.
• A sneaky good RB room pairing of Cam Skattebo + Tyrone Tracy.
• An offensive line unit that finished 9th best in PFF's final 2025 rankings, a massive improvement from 30th in 2024.

Risk Factors And Best Case Outcome

Now entering year two, Dart presents an intriguing value proposition that could mirror other successful QB breakouts we’ve seen in recent memory. Given the hype around Dart, we still need to keep in mind that young QBs carry a wide range of outcomes, and projections should build that volatility into rankings.

Primary Risk Factors:

• Coaching uncertainty is still present with any coaching staff change
• Aggressive play style = more injury concern
• Potential for a slow start with a young QB-WR core that has not played together

Best Case Scenario:

A top 5 fantasy QB finish if rushing volume stays consistent with last year, the Giants approach a league average pass rate, and Nabers returns to full explosiveness from his injury. This outcome mirrors what we saw from Maye in 2025 and Jayden Daniels during his rookie year. They are perfect examples of dual threat quarterbacks whose legs carried them into elite territory while maintaining respectable passing stats.

Can Dart be a League Winner?

If Dart is going as the QB8 or later in your drafts, he’s an instant smash, but it always depends on his ADP as draft season gets closer. You can also pair a quarterback with true upside because of his rushing ability with a different positional player from an earlier round that you wouldn't have been able to draft if you had decided on an early QB instead.

When to pivot:

• If ADP rises to QB5 or higher, the value evaporates
• If an elite QB like Josh Allen or Lamar falls past their typical range, take the sure thing
• If you can find comparable rushing upside at a later pick

Stack Potential:

Stacks are about opportunity in your draft, it's great when you secure one, but forcing a stack could derail your whole draft. Dart's later round ADP, paired with Malik Nabers, is one of the best QB-WR stacks for 2026 as you don't need to spend 2 early picks on that stack. Historical data shows QB-WR stacks outperform in tournaments and high stakes leagues. If you can grab both at reasonable ADP, you’ve set yourself up with built-in correlation that wins weeks.

Offseason Monitoring Notes:

Pay attention to the Giants’ designed rushes per game in preseason, and note how the new coaching staff speaks about Dart. These indicators will help identify whether to lock Dart in as a target even if his ADP rises leading up to drafts. If Harbaugh opens up the rushing playbook early, that’s a sign Dart’s value could exceed current expectations.

There are rumors circulating about the Giants drafting Love ,the clear cut rookie RB projected in the top 10 of the NFL draft. Of course it may very well be a smokescreen, but if the Giants end up bringing Love to NY, this could have a significant negative impact on Dart's rushing upside due to the skillset of the best RB prospect in the 2026 rookie class.

Dart is a high-upside asset with a stable floor whose 2025 season shows the pattern we’ve seen from QBs with strong rushing floors heading into year two. If the numbers hold and the coaching staff commits to his legs, you’re looking at one of the best QB value plays in 2026.